Read I Was Reincarnated as a Poor Farmer in a Different World, so I Decided to Make Bricks to Build a Castle

933 - - futures trading

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"What do you mean, ay?　What's a futures contract?　Who needs to buy more rice?"

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　In order to make mutual aid associations and the like a little more manageable, they need money, after all.

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　Ai suggested that we buy rice.

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　But is that really such a good way to make money?

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　The reason is that the season is already summer.

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　And I have heard that there is going to be a very good harvest in the Orient, probably due to the adoption of Barka rice and its good cultivation methods spread by the Barka mercenaries.

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　We haven't been able to do much in the way of agriculture yet, since we needed to make magic tools and the salt damage on our land has finally calmed down.

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　So, I have been planning to buy rice and I have been checking the quality of this year's crop from the planting stage.

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　Even if they ask us to buy rice now, it was our intention to do so in the first place, and we wonder if we can make any money out of it.

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"The important thing is to buy rice now, Mr. Alphonse.

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"Hmm?　What do you mean?　If we're going to buy rice, don't we have to wait until the rice is properly grown and harvested?"

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No, sir. We are not talking about buying actual rice. You are signing a contract to purchase the rice when it is not yet available.

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"......What does that mean?"

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"Yes, there is. Farmers and merchants alike are probably thinking that there will be a good crop this year. If there is as much rice as expected, what do you think will happen to the price of rice?"

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"Well, it means we'll have a lot of rice. Maybe, with the combination of the effect of [soil improvement] and the harvest efficiency of the Barka rice, we'll be able to harvest more rice than ever before, so we might be able to sell it at a lower price."

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"That's right. Crops tend to be cheaper when there is a good harvest and more expensive when there is a bad harvest. It depends on the amount of taxes paid to the government, but most of the farmers and merchants must think that the price of rice will be lower this year.

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"Mmm-hmm. So, Ai wants us to buy the rice before the bumper crop is ready. Does that mean we should sign a contract with the farmers first?"

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"That's right. If you offer them a contract to buy the rice you can produce this year for about the same price as in past years, there will be many who will agree to that contract. For the farmers, they would be able to sell their rice at a higher price.

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"That's great, but doesn't that mean we lose money?　It means buying the right to buy rice at a higher price first, when the price will be lower due to a better-than-usual rice harvest, right?　How do you make money from that?"

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　I kind of understand what Ai means by futures trading.

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　In essence, he is saying that the price is set now and the purchase is reserved.

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　Then, no matter how the price of the rice changes later, the rice is picked up in the fall at the contracted price at that time.

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　This means that you make a deal in advance even if you don't have the actual rice.

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　Is that different from a pre-order?

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　Well, it would be possible to negotiate the price first and accept the actual goods later.

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　But I don't think that would be enough to fill up my money-strapped pockets.

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No problem. The rice market will soar this year.

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"Soaring" means the price will go up?　Why not?　I thought prices were supposed to go down if there was a good crop."

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That's right. And if there is a bad harvest, the price goes up.

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"Huh?　So you're saying that Ai thinks that this year's rice crop will be very bad."

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"Yes. There is a storm coming this year. It will be a big storm. It's going to cause a lot of damage, not only to crops, but also to rivers and flooding.

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"Storm?　Really?"

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　I guess you can't make money trading futures.

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　When I said that, Ai denied it outright.

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　And the storm is the reason.

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　It is true that in this group of small states, it rains a lot.

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　And every time it does, the Kuzuryu Plain, where the sub-national group is located, is damaged by the overflowing of several large rivers.

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　After I came here, I had heard of small floods nearby, and there were stories of major damage in other small countries.

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　So I cannot say that there is no possibility.

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　But is there really such a big storm?

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"I have been making weather observations and weather forecasts using the four wings under the direction of Mr. Ars. And I have started it not only in the United Kingdom of Fontana but also in the East. As a result, it is very likely that this Orient and other neighboring countries will suffer crop failure due to storms this year."

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　I wonder if he saw the look of disbelief on my face.

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　To dispel my doubts, Ai said in a confident tone.

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　Oh, by the way, there is a weather forecast.

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　When I was in Vulcania, the sky kingdom, I never paid much attention to it since I lived higher than the clouds.

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　So I had completely forgotten that such a thing existed.

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　But on the ground, it's not like that.

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　The weather changes every year or every day on the land below the clouds.

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　And it is too unpredictable for those of us on the ground.

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　But the Eye was different.

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　It predicts the future weather with great accuracy.

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　When did this predictable region somehow correspond to the East?

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　If so, we may really have a big storm this year and a bad rice crop.

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　We can't afford to be like this.

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　Instead of making a killing by buying rice, I and my mercenaries may not even have enough to eat.

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　I'll buy some futures, or leftover rice from last year, or whatever, while I still can.

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　I decided to trust Ai's weather forecast and start buying rice.

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